Could Your California Rent Buy a Texas Home? The Real Math

Let us start with what you know: your rent.

If you live in San Francisco, your median three-bedroom rent is $5,280 a month. That is $63,360 a year going to your landlord. In Palo Alto, it is $6,300 a month. $75,600 a year. In Sunnyvale, $5,000. In Irvine, $4,800. In Los Angeles, $4,495. In San Jose, $4,395. In San Diego, $4,295 [1].

These figures represent median advertised asking rents for three-bedroom single-family homes. They are not limited to luxury properties, but a median does not describe every home's condition, location or amenities. Asking rents can also differ from the amounts ultimately agreed to in signed leases.

West Hollywood and Palo Alto are extreme cases, at $8,200 and $6,300 a month respectively. But even the other Bay Area cities in the table above are running $4,395 to $5,280 a month. That is $52,740 to $63,360 a year before you buy groceries, pay for daycare, or save a single dollar for retirement.

Median asking rents increased year over year in several of the specific markets highlighted here: 5.7 percent in San Francisco, 5.9 percent in San Jose and 11.1 percent in Sunnyvale. Those increases do not mean every tenant's rent rose by the same percentage, but they show that advertised single-family rental costs increased materially in those markets [1].

Now let us look at the other side of the equation.

Redfin reported a May 2026 median sale price of $309,796 for all home types in West San Antonio, based on the three months ending in May. The comparable median was $449,731 in the City of Boerne and $574,779 throughout ZIP code 78006 [2][3][4]. These are geographic, all-home-type medians, not medians limited to three-bedroom detached houses.

Here is what those numbers mean in monthly payments, based on a 20 percent down payment, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, and a 6.5 percent interest rate:

Using a 20 percent down payment, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and a 6.5 percent interest rate, a $309,796 purchase produces a loan of approximately $247,837 and a principal-and-interest payment of about $1,567 per month. A $449,731 purchase produces a loan of approximately $359,785 and a payment of about $2,274. A $574,779 purchase produces a loan of approximately $459,823 and a payment of about $2,906. These figures exclude property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues, flood insurance, maintenance and closing costs.

Read those numbers again.

A $6,300 payment would equal the principal and interest on a purchase price of roughly $1.25 million under these loan assumptions, but that is not a realistic affordability calculation because it leaves nothing for taxes, insurance, HOA dues, maintenance or other debts. The more useful comparison is total estimated housing cost. Under the planning assumptions shown below, the $310,000 West San Antonio example costs approximately $2,516 to $2,870 per month, while the $450,000 Boerne example costs approximately $3,599 to $4,087. Both remain below the published $6,300 Palo Alto rent. The West San Antonio example equals about 40-46 percent of that rent, while the Boerne example equals about 57-65 percent. The West San Antonio example is less than half of the Palo Alto figure; the Boerne example is not.

You are not the only person comparing family housing costs across cities. U.S. Census Bureau data analyzed by The Wall Street Journal show a pronounced demographic shift in large American cities, although the figures reflect both migration and a nationwide decline in births.

Between 2015 and 2024, the number of children under age 5 in the 38 U.S. cities with more than 500,000 residents fell 15 percent, compared with a 7 percent decline nationwide. The total under-18 population in those cities fell 6 percent, compared with 1 percent nationwide. About two-thirds of the 38 cities lost children during that period [5].

San Jose experienced a 20 percent decline in its under-18 population and a 34 percent decline among children under age 5. Los Angeles experienced a 16 percent decline in its under-18 population. Fort Worth's under-18 population increased 11 percent [5].

Housing and childcare costs are among the forces families cited, but the population data do not prove that every missing child represents a family that relocated. Lower birthrates also contributed to the decline. The evidence supports a demographic shift away from many high-cost cities, not the claim that every family is leaving solely because 'the math stopped working.'

A separate Census Bureau data set provides direct evidence of state-to-state migration. The 2024 American Community Survey estimated that approximately 77,000 people moved from California to Texas during the prior year, making California the largest source of new Texas residents from another state [6].

Some families are relocating, and the 2024 American Community Survey estimated approximately 77,000 moves from California to Texas. But that state-to-state total includes movers of all household types and does not show how many were families with children or why they moved. The decline in the number of children living in major cities also reflects lower birthrates, so the two data sets should not be presented as proving the same cause.

Housing is only one part of a relocation decision. Taxes, insurance, employment, commute patterns, climate, schools, healthcare, proximity to family and exposure to wildfire or flooding can all materially change the result.

California's maximum personal income-tax rate is 13.3 percent: a top statutory rate of 12.3 percent plus an additional 1 percent on taxable income above $1 million. That is a marginal rate and does not apply to every taxpayer [10]. California real property is generally reassessed to current fair market value when ownership changes, subject to statutory exclusions. A buyer normally does not inherit the seller's long-held Proposition 13 assessed value [11]. Texas does not impose an individual state income tax, but Texas homeowners generally face higher effective property-tax rates and substantial homeowners-insurance costs.

School and crime comparisons should be based on current, address-specific public data rather than broad characterizations. Boerne ISD earned a 92/A overall rating in the Texas Education Agency's 2025 accountability system and currently reports more than 11,000 students across 14 schools [12][13]. Buyers should still verify the assigned district and campus for each property because city limits, ZIP codes, mailing addresses and school-attendance boundaries do not always match.

For a deeper look at the emotional and practical reasons families find it hard to leave California, even when the financial case is clear, see our article on Why It's So Hard to Leave California.

Texas is not perfect. Every state has tradeoffs. But for families who feel stuck, paying more and getting less, the Hill Country offers something that is increasingly hard to find in coastal California: a place where the cost of living makes room for the life you actually want to live.

The principal-and-interest figures above are only the loan payment. A complete ownership budget must also consider property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues, flood insurance where applicable, maintenance, utilities, closing costs and mortgage insurance when the down payment is below 20 percent.

Using the article's assumptions, property taxes and homeowners insurance alone add approximately $692 to $896 per month to the West San Antonio example and approximately $950 to $1,238 to the Boerne example before considering HOA dues, maintenance or flood coverage. Actual taxes must be calculated for the specific address and adjusted for applicable exemptions. Insurance must be quoted for the specific house because premiums depend on replacement cost, roof age, location, claims history, credit-based insurance factors and coverage selections.

Texas Department of Insurance data show a preliminary 2025 statewide average homeowners premium of $3,506 per year, or about $292 per month. That statewide figure is a benchmark, not a quote for any particular property, and it is not broken out by home value or county, so it should not be read as contradicting the lower per-example estimates above, which scale with each property's estimated replacement cost [8].

In the examples shown, estimated Texas ownership costs remain below the published California asking rents used for comparison. That does not establish the result for "most families": the outcome depends on the specific rent, property, down payment, mortgage terms, taxes, insurance, HOA or special-district charges, maintenance and the buyer's other obligations. The narrower conclusion supported by the data is that a monthly outlay comparable to the $6,300 Palo Alto asking-rent median may cover the estimated ownership costs of the Texas examples shown here.

Rent pays for the right to occupy a home and generally transfers much of the repair and market-value risk to the property owner. It does not create real-property equity for the tenant. It is inaccurate, however, to say that every rent dollar goes to a landlord's mortgage and profit; landlords may also pay property taxes, insurance, repairs, management, vacancies and other operating costs, and some own their properties without mortgages.

A mortgage payment contains both interest and principal. On the $450,000 example, the initial $360,000 loan would decline to approximately $337,000 after 60 scheduled payments, meaning about $23,000 of principal would be repaid during the first five years. The down payment, principal reduction and any appreciation contribute to equity; depreciation and selling expenses reduce it.

Homeownership can create long-term value, but it is not automatically the better choice for every renter. A buyer needs sufficient cash, stable income, an appropriate ownership horizon and the ability to absorb repairs and market risk. Renting may be preferable when flexibility matters or when the buyer expects to move before the purchase and eventual selling costs can be recovered.

If you have started looking at Boerne online, you have probably noticed that the prices vary wildly. That is because "Boerne" means different things to different people.

The City of Boerne had a median sale price of $449,731 for all home types in Redfin's May 2026 reporting period [3]. The broader 78006 ZIP code, which includes Cordillera Ranch, rural properties outside the city and other Hill Country communities, had a median of $574,779 [4]. Premium gated, acreage and custom-home communities can run well above that median.

If you are drawn to the Hill Country's oak trees, open space, slower pace and community character but find the Boerne price point too high, West San Antonio may offer an alternative. The area includes a broad mix of established neighborhoods and newer construction, but school assignments, tax rates, commute times and amenities must be verified for the specific address.

The right choice depends on your priorities: commute distance, school preferences, lot size, community feel, and budget. That is exactly the kind of conversation worth having with someone who knows both markets.